Visible Production of 65,000 bopd by the end of 2010!!!

***15th April - RESULTS OF PLACING*** http://www.afren.com/uploads/MicrosoftWord090415PricingAnnouncementFINAL.pdf http://www.afren.com/uploads/MicrosoftWord090415PricingAnnouncementFINAL.pdf

***6th April - FINAL RESULTS*** http://www.afren.com/uploads/MicrosoftWord2008PrelimResults060409FINAL.pdf

***26th March - EBOK RESULTS*** http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1238058544&article=37029195&symbol=L%5EAFR

26th March - Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented: "The exceptional results from the Ebok appraisal drilling, well ahead of pre-drill expectations, confirm a material 52 million barrels recoverable oil development with upside potential of up to 106 million barrels. The Field Development Plan which will be submitted shortly by the partners for approval, encompasses a fast track Early Production System that will deliver up to 25,000 bopd in early 2010, with a full field development achieving up to 50,000 bopd by end 2010. This represents an outstanding success for the Ebok field partners and a transformational outcome for Afren. With a visible exit production rate of circa 65,000 bopd by end 2010, this ranks Afren firmly towards the top end of the London quoted established independent producers."

(27th March)The announcement brings forward Afren's production profile and cashflow dramatically," said Merrill Lynch, as it increased its 2010 earnings-per-share forecast by 62 per cent.

(27th March) - Evolution Securities' target price is 130p.

26th March - UBS Investors Presentation Must Read - New Afren Presentation http://www.afren.com/uploads/UBSInvestorPresentationFinal260309(1).pdf

ROB's DRAFT FIGURES FOR 2009 REVENUE (This has been put together quickly based on the sale prices from 2008 against my view on expected production for 2009 - http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p9lm8F4ZI_wDQuPMx_8O_ZQ - Any suggestions on calculations let me know robwoodt@gmail.com)

In a Nut Shell

In a nut shell Mkt Cap Circa £170m, Producing Circa 27,000 bopd with so far circa 90mmobe confirmed(ebok new reserves included), SP hammered from 180p to 14p, since bounicing to 40p (with much more to go in my opinion - patience required), the company have never been in better shape and have $500 million strategic alliance with Sojitz for investments and aquisitions

Results of Ebok field **just released** smash ecpectations - material 52 million barrels recoverable oil development with upside potential of up to 106 million barrels, fast track Early Production System that will deliver up to 25,000 bopd in early 2010, with a full field development achieving up to 50,000 bopd by end 2010, visible exit production rate of circa 65,000 bopd by end 2010

altough the company have circa $350 million of debt (to be confirmed in results) this is being paid off from 90% of revenue from Okoro (currently producing 22,000 bopd), so debt is ringfenced against reserves, prefect. To compliment this the producing fields have oil hedged at $55 & $83.

Afren have great management, an impressive track record and are aiming for a WI production rate of 65,000 bopd by the end of 2010. Long term when the economy turns a corner and the price of oil rise (and it will) this company will be printing money, a rare, confident hold for long term returns, DYOR!

Ebok results are double what where expected and as quoted we could have "visible exit production rate of circa 65,000 bopd by end 2010"!!!

IMPORTANT If you read nothing else on this blog look at the recent presentation at http://www.afren.com/uploads/UBSInvestorPresentationFinal260309(1).pdf and the recent Ebok Update http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1238222104&article=37029195&symbol=L%5EAFR

AFREN WEBSITE LATEST NEWS

Afren - Google News

Afren PLC News - Interactive Investor

Monday, February 9, 2009

Feb 9th - successfully raised over $450 million

The Company has successfully raised over $450 million in attractively priced debt and loan notes since IPO. On the face of it, although this figure appears high in comparison to the Company’s current market capitalisation, the majority of this debt is ringfenced around the assets in a reserves based lending structure.

Of the Company’s current $430 million debt, only a $50 million senior un-secured facility and the $45 million loan notes (at labor + 2%) are non-ringfenced to the assets.

The reserve based lending facilities are amortised over a 5 year term. The facility amounts available (which have been drawn) are calculated based on the fields ability to service the debt under a very conservative banking case (which is typically below the 1P production forecast) and low oil price.

This ensures that the fields will generate sufficient net cashflow to service the debt even in a low case. It is worth noting that both Okoro and Cote d’Ivoire are performing substantially above the forecasts used for the purpose of determining the borrowing base, and are set to continue to do so, thereby ensuring that all debt obligations (reserves based or otherwise) can be comfortably met now and in the future with significant residual free cash remaining for the company to fund further growth and expansion.

As part of its reserve based lending facilities, the Company has strategically hedged a certain amount of production to further ensure that debt service obligations can be met and also to comply with certain debt covenants.

The Company has hedged its oil production in Cote d’Ivoire out to the end of 2012 at an average floor price of $83/bbl, and at Okoro has hedged approximately 17% of production to the end of 2010 at an average floor price of approximately $55/bbl. 2009 will be a year of peak production at Okoro, with the field currently producing profitably at circa 22,000 b/d the field is significantly out-performing pre production start-up estimates of 15,000 b/d (circa +47% out-performance vs guidance).

Coupled with a stable 5,200 boe/d production in Cote d’Ivoire the Company is now producing circa 27,000 boe/d. The Company is therefore strongly cash generative, and 2009 will see Afren pay down a further $105 million in debt principal amounts, thereby reducing the forecast end 2009 debt position to approximately $325 million (including the loan notes), approximately $280 million excluding the loan notes

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